General Election 2017: WokeNation Prediction & Exit Polls

It’s time for predictions. Polling has closed and concluded harmoniously across the country (but for Newcastle-under-Lyme, where many Keele University students complained of being turned away from polling stations.) This is what we @ WokeNation predict.

Possible outcomes

The possible outcomes of this election are broad with the final day polls looking like this:

YouGov: CON: 42% (-) LAB: 35% (-3) [7pt Tory lead]

Survation: CON: 41% (+1) LAB: 40% (+1) [1pt Tory lead]

A winning party needs 326 seats to form a majority government. The Conservative party won 331 seats in the 2015 election, making them a narrow majority government. Theresa May called the 2017 election with the intention of building upon this narrow majority of 5 seats.

However, if a party falls below the 326 seat majority threshold they will need to form a minority government or most commonly a coalition government as seen in 2010 when the Conservatives won 306 seats and were forced to form the ConDem Coalition with the 57 seat Liberal Democrats.

The 2017 election campaign has seen a return to two-party politics with both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP failing to register in the polls. However, there may be a LibDem ‘Remainer’ resurgence and the SNP have continued to maintain their Scottish stronghold. Thus, it is likely that the neither Conservatives nor Labour will make any major gains in Scotland. It is also unlikely that Plaid Cymru will make any major gains in Wales, with Labour polling strongly again across Wales.

Predictions

There are 650 constituencies in the United Kingdom, with the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP sharing 619 of the 650 seats in the 2015 election. The campaign and vote is reliant on results in the marginal battleground seats (seats with small majorities under 10%). There are 110 battleground constituencies which could decide the election, Labour second in 48 seats, Conservatives second in 46 seats, Lib Dems second in 16 seats. Additionally, the Greens have withdrawn in many Labour marginal seats and UKIP have told their supporters to back the Conservatives, this will lead to a consolidation of the vote for both major parties in key battleground seats. Tactical voting may also see Liberal Democrat candidates receiving more votes in constituencies like Twickenham.

Westminister: We predict that there will be a Conservative majority of 10 seats in the House of Commons. While there has been a major swing in the polls towards Corbyn’s Labour, this has been a swing back to Labour from a very low polling position in April. This has not been a swing from the Conservatives to Labour, but a return to Labour from previously apathetic Labour voters, thus it may only bring Labour back to their 2015 standing. Further, the UKIP vote may shore up the Conservatives majorities in key battleground seats. However, this would still be a success for Labour, considering the election was called by May to increase her Parliamentary majority and decimate all opposition, especially the Labour share of Parliament.

Scotland: we predict that the SNP will hold most of their 56 seats but may drop seats to Labour.

The North: we predict little Conservative gain.

Midlands: we predict Walsall North, Birmingham Edgbaston and Birmingham Selly Oak to remain Labour and Derby North to turn red.

London and the South: there are 3 major marginals in London, at WokeNation we predict Labour to clean up in London and hold their marginals in Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth and win back Croydon Central from the Conservatives. We also predict Amber Rudd to lose her Hastings constituency to Labour and North Devon to go to the Liberal Democrats.

Wales: we predict no Plaid Cymru gains and Labour to maintain their Welsh seats.

Scrap all of that.

Exit polls:

CON: 314 (17)

LAB: 266 (+34)

SNP: 34 (22)

LIB DEMS: 14 (+6)

OTHER: 18

The exit polls suggest there will be a Hung Parliament, the two main parties (Conservatives & Labour) will be required to scramble together a coalition or ‘confidence and supply’ alliance in order to form a majority Government.

Conservative Commons Permutations with a Hung Parliament:

As in 2010 it is possible that there will be ConDem Coalition MKII. With May needing 326 seats to form a coalition and Tim Farron continuously flip-flopping about whether he would re-enter the LibDems into coalition with the Tories, it is likely they will sit around the negotiating table and come to a coalition agreement. With the Conservatives 314 seats and Liberal Democrats 14 seats, the ConDem MKII coalition will have the required 328 majority. However, this is not a certainty, Liberal Democrats have been the most Eurocentric of three main parties and the only party to maintain their “Remain” stance towards Brexit. While the LibDems have form in ditching their election pledges for a seat at the highest table, their stance for a second referendum has been their key manifesto pledge, with Conservatives and Labour having more in common on Brexit than the LibDems do with the two main parties. Theresa May, who called this election on the basis of having a strong Parliament behind her going into Brexit negotiations will find the most unorthodox bedfellows in the LibDems should they form a ConDem coalition MKII.

If as expected, the exit polls produce a Hung Parliament, Theresa May will have lost all political credibility. This was May’s election to build a mandate and increase Parliamentary support for Brexit negotiations. The Hard-Brexit Eurosceptic Conservative Party having to collate with the Eurocentric Second EU Referendum Liberal Democrats? Major failure.

Conservative Minority Government with Supply from DUP or Liberal Democrats, will be as unworkable as the ConDem coalition MKII but more likely to happen at this stage, with the LibDems set to be hard to sway on Brexit.

Scotland: with the SNP predicted to lose 22 seats across Scotland it presents that Corbyn’s rallies in Glasgow and angle to the Scottish people that the SNP and Tory austerity were allied has got through. The single minded nationalism of the SNP may have backfired with the progressive nature of the Corbyn’s Labour manifesto nullifying the SNP (who originally rose because of array of left wing policies not just Scottish nationalism).

Labour Commons Permutations with a Hung Parliament:

Labour led Progressive Alliance, with Labour predicted to gain 266 seats, + 34 seats on the 2015 vote, even if they were to attempt to form a Progressive Alliance with the SNP (34), the Liberal Democrats (14) and Plaid Cymru (3) they would only reach 317 seats. Labour Progressive Alliance, not possible.

The only other option for Labour would be to form a Labour Minority Government with supply vote from the SNP, LibDems, Plaid Cymru, DUP and Conservative Party members. Not workable.

Thus, if the exit polls translate as predicted the only constitutional option for forming Government will be for a Euro-Confused ConDem Coalition of power MKII.

OR a Second General Election as occurred in 1974. Should the Conservatives be unable to form a second ConDem coalition they would be expected to replace May and call a second consecutive General Election pushing the UK into further political chaos, when its politicians should be focusing on the imminent Brexit negotiations (11 days time).

Theresa, May have plunged us into a state of constitutional crisis, however Exit Polls are polls like all others and they will not necessarily translate precisely, they have also underestimated the Conservative vote as recently as 2015.

Yours,

WokeNation Collaborators

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